Dr. Tarun Bhatnagar, Senior Scientist at Chennai’s National Institute of Epidemiology, Dr. Gautam Menon, Professor of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University and Dr. Giridhara Babu, epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India, Bengaluru explain the advantages and shortcomings of using a sustained increase in new cases in three States to warn the beginning of … Continue reading Can some States serve as a bellwether for the third wave in India?
A small proportion of the population might have reinfections due to waning antibodies. With newer areas seeing the surge in cases, we cannot rule out older variants spreading to these areas. There may be a dual problem facing the country. The old and newer variants might be in circulation in the uninfected regions in an … Continue reading India will add four million more cases by May 1, says Giridhara Babu
Considering that recruitment and complete vaccination of all trial participants has been achieved, the drug regulator has to take a decision on the number of cases required for licensing — currently available cases (which is likely to be more than 43), second endpoint of 87 cases or 130 cases as originally planned, for which the … Continue reading Should Covaxin trial continue till 130 cases are recorded?
Dr. Gautam Menon and Dr. Giridhara R. Babu discuss whether India has gone past the peak. Dr. Menon says in major cities in India and in some districts adjacent to those cities that already have sufficient numbers of people infected with novel coronavirus, the number of new infections is going down. But one can't say … Continue reading Cannot emphatically say India has passed the COVID-19 peak
In the last one month, cases in seven large Indian cities have reduced from 59% to 50% and deaths from 46% to 35%. Drop in cases seen in a few metros cities accompanied by rise in cases in smaller cities shows the new foci of local expanding circulation. Even as the number of novel coronavirus … Continue reading Coronavirus spread shifts from large to smaller Indian cities
The case fatality rate in India, which has been falling steadily, has for the first time dipped below the 2.5% mark on July 19; it was 3.2% in the second week of May. There are many factors that could alter the case fatality rate. Increased testing in recent weeks could be just one of them. … Continue reading COVID-19: What explains the low case fatality rate in India
With surveillance not being commendable, the 10.3% test positivity rate nationally in the last few days is a clear indication that a very large pool of infected people in the community remains undiagnosed. The number of tests done daily has now crossed three lakhs but the high-test positivity rate underscores the need to increase the … Continue reading A report card of States as coronavirus cases cross one million in India