India unlikely to witness a huge surge in cases in September

While NITI Aayog has predicted four-five lakh cases a day in September, the ground reality suggests otherwise. Daily cases in all States except Kerala have been steadily declining since the second wave peaked in early May. Unlike in other countries such as the U.S. which is witnessing a surge in cases caused by the Delta … Continue reading India unlikely to witness a huge surge in cases in September

‘We need to stay prepared for multiple waves and variants’

This is probably not the last wave and these are not the last set of variants. We have to stay prepared for the future. What happens when we see another uptick or outbreak is to a great extent in our hands. We know how to fight this virus. We have to stay prepared for outbreaks … Continue reading ‘We need to stay prepared for multiple waves and variants’

Can vaccination of all adults slow down the second wave?

It is very much possible to slow down the pace of virus spread by vaccinating all above 18 years. However, with vaccine shortage in many States, the number of daily vaccinations in the last week has been dipping. Since April 1 the number daily fresh cases has been accelerating rapidly with the number of cases … Continue reading Can vaccination of all adults slow down the second wave?

India will have 8-10 lakh cases a day when second wave peaks in mid-May, says Bhramar Mukherjee

Even when we saw the uptick in mid-February, we were dismissive and continued with data denial. The nonchalance, negligence, complacency and hubris cannot be ignored. We have estimated death underreporting by a factor of two-five in the first wave. Now with the surge, the reporting infrastructure has probably eclipsed dramatically. So I expect the underreporting … Continue reading India will have 8-10 lakh cases a day when second wave peaks in mid-May, says Bhramar Mukherjee

Should Covaxin trial continue till 130 cases are recorded?

Considering that recruitment and complete vaccination of all trial participants has been achieved, the drug regulator has to take a decision on the number of cases required for licensing — currently available cases (which is likely to be more than 43), second endpoint of 87 cases or 130 cases as originally planned, for which the … Continue reading Should Covaxin trial continue till 130 cases are recorded?

Is India witnessing the beginning of the second wave?

With the currently prevailing strains, India as a country may not have a second wave bigger than the first wave. If anything, we will have second waves regionally in States, which may occur over a period. There should be sustained increase in cases along with either a doubling in hospitalisation or test positivity rate in … Continue reading Is India witnessing the beginning of the second wave?