India will add four million more cases by May 1, says Giridhara Babu

A small proportion of the population might have reinfections due to waning antibodies. With newer areas seeing the surge in cases, we cannot rule out older variants spreading to these areas. There may be a dual problem facing the country. The old and newer variants might be in circulation in the uninfected regions in an … Continue reading India will add four million more cases by May 1, says Giridhara Babu

Should Covaxin trial continue till 130 cases are recorded?

Considering that recruitment and complete vaccination of all trial participants has been achieved, the drug regulator has to take a decision on the number of cases required for licensing — currently available cases (which is likely to be more than 43), second endpoint of 87 cases or 130 cases as originally planned, for which the … Continue reading Should Covaxin trial continue till 130 cases are recorded?

As cases spike in a few States, what is causing a decline in Kerala?

Even as daily new cases and test positivity rates have been declining in Kerala since end-January, the Health Ministry has been mischievously implicating the State for a surge in new cases. While researchers think the decline could be due to infection rate reaching close to herd immunity, serosurvey results show otherwise. Kerala pioneers post-COVID care … Continue reading As cases spike in a few States, what is causing a decline in Kerala?

COVID-19: India needs to ramp up testing but shouldn’t over-rely on rapid antigen tests

With over 60,000 daily fresh cases, India has been reporting the highest numbers in the world for the last few days. Yet, the high test positivity rate strongly suggests that more infected people remain undetected. Chennai is witnessing fewer than 1,000 daily cases, mainly due to aggressive testing and renewed contact tracing. The extended lockdown … Continue reading COVID-19: India needs to ramp up testing but shouldn’t over-rely on rapid antigen tests

COVID-19: What explains the low case fatality rate in India

The case fatality rate in India, which has been falling steadily, has for the first time dipped below the 2.5% mark on July 19; it was 3.2% in the second week of May. There are many factors that could alter the case fatality rate. Increased testing in recent weeks could be just one of them. … Continue reading COVID-19: What explains the low case fatality rate in India

A report card of States as coronavirus cases cross one million in India

With surveillance not being commendable, the 10.3% test positivity rate nationally in the last few days is a clear indication that a very large pool of infected people in the community remains undiagnosed. The number of tests done daily has now crossed three lakhs but the high-test positivity rate underscores the need to increase the … Continue reading A report card of States as coronavirus cases cross one million in India

COVID-19: States should bite the bullet and increase testing

It is important for every State to take a leaf out of Maharashtra’s book and test large numbers each day unmindful of the rising fresh cases each day. Moving from a smaller number of targeted tests to increased testing in the community about two weeks ago has led to test positivity rate reducing from 35% to … Continue reading COVID-19: States should bite the bullet and increase testing

How States have fared the COVID-19 fight

Unmindful of the high positive cases reported daily, Maharashtra has tested aggressively, while Delhi has done the opposite. Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have performed excellently, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Telangana have been laggards. Gujarat remains an enigma. On June 20, a month after 1,00,000 novel coronavirus cases were reported, India crossed … Continue reading How States have fared the COVID-19 fight

COVID-19: India surpasses China’s tally despite prolonged lockdown

On May 15, 106 days after the first novel coronavirus case was reported on January 30, with over 85,500 cases, India surpassed China’s tally of 84,038 despite being under a harsh lockdown since March 25. Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal with high case positivity rates are States of particular concern. In 106 days … Continue reading COVID-19: India surpasses China’s tally despite prolonged lockdown

COVID-19 death is a wake-up call to improve surveillance in the area: Giridhara Babu

Increase in testing alone cannot explain an increase in the number of cases during the lockdown. It is also possible that the surveillance systems in some States might have missed a cluster or two of infections during the earlier phase of the outbreak, which has resulted in a large number of cases now being detected, … Continue reading COVID-19 death is a wake-up call to improve surveillance in the area: Giridhara Babu